Monday, March 7, 2011

The Russian Roulette of Logic and Being Correct

Sometimes, the logical choice and the correct option are not the same.

Suppose you would be rewarded with an astronomical value of money (whatever arbitrary value I state, there would be someone unsatisfied, so let's go with this) for a go at the Russian Roulette.  Logically, you should accept it.  I mean, let's get real; there is a staggering 83.3% chance to win.

You see, this is a very simple game.  There are only three outcomes:
1.  You die.
2.  You survive and become richer.
3.  You walk away from the game.

However, unless you are deep in debt or have an otherwise deeply-rooted agenda, I doubt anyone would participate in this proposal.  Outcome 1 is way too heavy a price to pay.   Do not argue that 16.7% is too high and you would accept an otherwise risk percentage.  In terms of real-time decisions, there are generally a few broad outcomes and I find 6 to be a pretty realistic figure in terms of  deciding on a maximum  number for the varying of results. Yes, I believe that as wealth increases, so will happiness.  Readers with good memory may contest this point with my minimalist ideology mentioned here; my simple explanation is that one can lavish his wealth to pursue his focused agenda deeply.  Yet there are things that wealth cannot buy; I know, sounds cliché.  

Now let's refer to a very famous motivation model-Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, as drawn below:
Those familiar with this simple pyramid would know that the bottom levels need to be fulfilled before one can move on to the next level.  Considering that the safety of one cannot be assured, then well, it brings doubts as to whether the logical choice of making advancements, should be done.

More importantly, there is a difference between playing poker and "Big-Small" (think coin toss).  In poker, you actually have to make evaluate your position and make sound decisions.  In "Big-Small", it is simply a cast of the dice and luck.  Alpha men do take gambles; but only calculated ones and those which they still can exercise some form of control over.  Of course, the amount of control one requires to have and the  magnitude of the luck element differs based on the Risk-Security in differing circumstances as well.

It would be logical to pull the trigger for fortune-hunting.  But would it making the right choice?

*Sidenote:  On the other hand, how could one resist such a temptation?

Shoot, score, smile.

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